Census Uninsured Numbers and the “Stimulus”
As previously noted, Democrats spent the better part of last year making the argument that 14,000 people lost their health insurance every day. However, that Center for American Progress estimate connected changes in insurance coverage to job losses – which effectively attributes the high increase in the uninsured numbers announced this morning to flawed economic and fiscal policies. Here’s the critical passage from the CAP paper explaining their formula:
A one percentage point rise in the national unemployment rate causes 2.4 million people to lose employer-sponsored health coverage, according to Urban Institute researchers. Of these people, 1 million rely on Medicaid or the Children’s Health Insurance Program and 1.1 million end up uninsured.
The Administration promised that unemployment would remain below 8% if the “stimulus” passed; in December 2009, it stood at 10.0%, exactly two percentage points higher than predicted. Using the above formula, that means that 2.2 million fewer individuals had health insurance in 2009 because the Administration’s “stimulus” failed to keep unemployment below 8 percent as promised. In addition, another two million people were forced into Medicaid, straining state and federal budgets alike.
Of course, several Republicans, and other economic analysts, have pointed out flaws in the crude formula used by CAP and the Urban Institute to link changes in the unemployment rate to changes in insurance coverage. But the fact remains that, using a statistical formula the President himself cited in his address to Congress on health care last year, and the Administration’s own promises for “stimulus” job growth, more than half of last year’s 4.3 million increase in the uninsured has its roots in the “stimulus”’ failure to deliver on its promises.
Also of note from the uninsured report (specifically, Table C-3 on page 84): The number of uninsured children remained nearly the same in 2009 – the number rose by 165,000, and the rate rose only slightly (from 9.9% to 10%). However, the relatively static uninsured number masks a bigger migration, in which the number of children covered by employer sponsored insurance fell by nearly 2 million, and the number of children on Medicaid rose by more than 2.7 million. This change in coverage sources is entirely consistent with decade-long trends, which suggest private-sector insurance coverage of children has been eroded by expanding government programs. Specifically, the number of children covered by employer-based coverage has declined by 5.2 million since 1999, while Medicaid and SCHIP coverage has risen by 10.6 million. While it’s easy to blame this year’s decline in private sector insurance coverage, and the resulting increase in Medicaid/SCHIP coverage, solely on the effects of the recession, when it comes to covering children, the effects of last year’s SCHIP legislation in should not be easily discounted.