2.6 Million Uninsured Thanks to “Stimulus'” Failure to Deliver
Ahead of this morning’s release of the uninsured data, it’s worth examining where responsibility for the recent increase in the uninsured lies. As previously noted, Democrats spent the better part of 2009 making the argument that 14,000 people lost their health insurance every day. However, that Center for American Progress estimate connected changes in insurance coverage to job losses – effectively attributing the high increase in the uninsured numbers over the past two years to flawed economic and fiscal policies. Here’s the critical passage from the CAP paper explaining their formula:
A one percentage point rise in the national unemployment rate causes 2.4 million people to lose employer-sponsored health coverage, according to Urban Institute researchers. Of these people, 1 million rely on Medicaid or the Children’s Health Insurance Program and 1.1 million end up uninsured.
The Administration promised that unemployment would reach 7% by the end of 2010 if the “stimulus” passed; in December 2010, it stood at 9.4%, 2.4 percentage points higher than predicted. Using the above formula, that means that 2.6 million fewer individuals had health insurance in 2010 because the Administration’s “stimulus” failed to meet its promise. Overall, nearly 5.8 million lost access to employer-sponsored health coverage due to the failure of the “stimulus” to deliver the jobs promised. Of those, approximately 2.5 million people were forced into Medicaid, straining state and federal budgets alike.
Of course, several Republicans, and other economic analysts, have pointed out flaws in the crude formula used by CAP and the Urban Institute to link changes in the unemployment rate to changes in insurance coverage. But the fact remains that, using a statistical formula the President himself cited in his address to Congress on health care in 2009, and the Administration’s own promises for “stimulus” job growth, most of the recent increase in the uninsured has its roots in the “stimulus”’ failure to deliver on its promises.